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Philp Fairey, Deputy Director |
Shortly
after Jim Fenton arrived at FSEC as the center’s
new director in January, 2005, Philip Fairey began putting together
some briefing materials to discuss the major energy and environmental
areas with him. Fairey, FSEC’s deputy director since
1990, was especially interested in talking about the implications
of our country’s future oil use.
“I did a considerable amount of research,” Fairey explained,” and
attempted to put the information on peak oil and global warming
together in a way that could be understood and appreciated by both
scientific and lay audiences. I developed one slide in particular
that I called world oil in perspective that is based on a 1998 article
in Scientific American, and it hit me pretty hard. It
basically showed annual world oil production since 1930 and then
showed where the level is today and where it will be for our children
and our grandchildren. The plunging downward line from today’s
level over the next 40 years or so was really scary with respect
to what my children are likely to face. And since I am also
a grandfather, the implications were frankly a little gut-wrenching”
Click image to enlarge.
He showed his materials to a number of FSEC staff members and got
a lot of feedback, with many noting that there was significant disagreement
among the experts as to how much oil we have left in the world,
where it will come from, and how soon we really have to worry about
it running out.
“That one slide in particular got a lot of attention,” he
said. “With so many experts looking at this problem
and with two basic sets of opinions —one group who thought
oil would peak very soon and another who believed it would not peak
for 25-30 years -- it became clear that I needed to look at
this closer and try to better understand the underlying data on
the future of our oil supply. I spent the next several months
reading a lot of books on the subject and spending a lot of time
on the Internet.”
The result of his research is a fascinating, heavily researched
but easy-to-follow slide presentation called “Into the Storm: The
Twin Challenges of Peak Oil & Global Warming.” He
finished the latest version of the presentation in the past couple
of months. It meets the need to put together information from
many different sources and to tie together the thoughts of people
in fields ranging from finance to population growth to politics. “The
big missing piece of peak oil information appears to be third-party
reliable and verifiable data,” Fairey noted. “What
I wanted to do was to collect the things that are being said, put
them together into a format where we could see the information that
is available, and then look at the dual grand challenges of getting
past world oil peaking and dealing with global warming. One
of the outcomes is a presentation that shows clearly that this is
not just a technical problem facing us, but rather an economic one.”
He’s given this new presentation to some large groups recently,
including the annual meeting of the Residential Energy Services
Network (RESNET) and the North Carolina Energy Star Conference,
as well as to several local groups including FSEC staff. He
notes that “the response has been overwhelming. People
have thanked me for gathering so much factual information on these
problems, and also for simply bringing the problems to their attention
in a way they could relate to. What I’ve tried to do
is put together a presentation that opens up public discourse, something
that is badly needed and needed now.”
You can view his complete slide presentation at http://www.fsec.ucf.edu/en/news/presentations/intothestorm.pdf. “Into
the Storm” not only looks at these two major challenges ahead
of us, but will challenge you to think about these issues
and what they mean to your future and your family’s future,
as well as to the future of our planet.
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